Future outlook

Crown and Baptist Streets

Due to its status as an established residential area, population growth in Crown and Baptist Streets village is expected to be relatively low over the next 2 decades.

The population growth that does occur is expected to be mainly in the prime working age (25-49 years) range, increasing the share of residents in this bracket, and also in the 60+ bracket.

A similarly subdued outlook is expected for workforce growth. However, the completion of the CBD and South East Light Rail line, expected around 2020, may radically change visitation patterns to the village, despite slow growth in residents and workers.

For more information

Population growth

Over the period 2011 to 2031, the population of Crown and Baptist Streets village is forecast to increase from 22,085 to 24,871 (see Table 13).

This equates to a relatively slow annual growth rate of 139 people, or 0.6% per annum.

As can be seen in Figure 9, this is one of the lowest forecast growth rates for all of the villages in the City of Sydney local area.

This is mostly due to the fact that the area is already densely populated, having been established for many years.

Table 13 – Forecast Village Population, 2011–2031

Estimated Resident Population Av. Annual Growth 2011–2031
2011 2021 2031 No. %
22,085 23,452 24,871 139 0.6%
Source: id Forecast

Figure 9 – Forecast Average Annual Population Growth, 2011–2031

Figure 9 – Forecast Average Annual Population Growth, 2011–2031 Source: id Forecast

Demographic change

Chart 8 illustrates the forecast demographic change in the village by comparing residents by age group in 2011 and 2031. In 2011, the most dominant age bracket in the village was 25-34 years (young workforce), with 6,880 residents. This category is expected to further extend its lead, with over 8,100 residents falling in this category by 2031. Between 2011 and 2031, strong growth is also expected in the following categories:

  • empty nesters and retirees (60-69 years) – increase of 645 residents
  • seniors (70-84 years) – increase of 583 residents
  • parents and homebuilders (35-49 years) – increase of 568 residents

On the other hand, the number of residents in categories such as tertiary education and independence, and older workers and pre-retirees are expected to experience decreases over the 20 year period.

Chart 8 – Population by Age Group, 2011 & 2031

Chart 8 – Population by Age Group, 2011 & 2031

Workforce changes

Chart 9 illustrates workforce forecasts for the village based on projections made by the Bureau of Transport Statistics in 2012. Over the 20 year period between 2011 and 2031, growth in the local workforce is projected to be 242 workers per year, or 0.9% per annum. Over the entire 35 year forecast period the average annual growth rate is slightly lower, at 219 workers, or 0.8%, per annum. This slow but steady forecast growth mirrors the forecast population growth, and may again reflect more limited new building activity in the area.

Chart 9 – Forecast Workforce Growth, 2011–2046

Chart 9 – Forecast Workforce Growth, 2011–2046

Major infrastructure

The infrastructure project of most relevance to Crown and Baptist Streets village is the CBD and South East Light Rail project, which is planned to provide services from Circular Quay to Moore Park via Central railway station. This project will bisect the village along Devonshire Street (see Figure 1), providing an alternative mode of public transport in the area and improving accessibility.

Work on the project is commencing in 2015, with construction expected to take 5 to 6 years. The CBD and South East Light Rail line will have 20 stops along the 12km route and is expected to be capable of carrying up to 9,000 passengers per hour in each direction. Public reception to the project appears to be quite positive. During the Crown Street intercept survey conducted in 2014, 32% of respondents said they were very likely to use the new service, while a further 28% said they were likely to use it. This highlights the value of the project to local businesses in bringing customers and employees into the village.

Residential development activity

Figure 10 shows recently completed and future residential developments in the village as measured by the City of Sydney’s Residential Development Monitor. This shows that the scale of residential development in the village is currently fairly small, which is consistent with the limited supply of developable land, and the moderate population growth forecast. The largest developments that are occurring tend to be in the south-west of the village, close to Redfern Park, where more redevelopment sites are available.

Figure 10 – City of Sydney Residential Development Monitor, June 2013

Figure 10 – City of Sydney Residential Development Monitor, June 2013

What does this mean for my business?

Understanding the future outlook for the village is important for all local businesses and those considering locating in the area. Anticipating changes to the local resident and worker populations along with changes to the physical environment is important for successful long-term business planning.

In terms of future population and workforce the outlook is fairly stable but without the prospect of significant growth. However the CBD and South East Light Rail project is a key piece of infrastructure that will significantly enhance public transport access to the village. This in turn should drastically increase visitation patterns, particularly to the Crown Street retail and dining precinct, and also change commuting patterns for those who work in the village.

Disclaimer

This information has been compiled from various sources. The publisher and contributors accept no responsibility for any injury, loss or damage arising from the use, error or omissions therein. While all care is taken to ensure a high degree of accuracy, users are invited to notify the City of Sydney of any discrepancies. No part of this information, including maps or data, may be reproduced without written permission.

Last updated: Tuesday, 16 June 2015