Future outlook

Green Square and City South

Green Square and City South is expected to experience phenomenal population growth over the coming 2 decades, to become the most populous village in the City of Sydney by 2031.

This will be driven by the continued urban regeneration process, where former industrial land is converted to high density residential.

In support of this new population a number of significant community facilities are being planned and constructed, most notably Green Square Town Centre, which will provide a civic, commercial and retail heart for the village.

While not keeping pace with population growth, workforce growth is expected to be solid, driven by new businesses entering the area to service the resident population. 

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Population growth

Table 12 summarises the forecast population growth in Green Square and City South between 2011 and 2031. At an average of 1,703 new residents, or 5.1%, per year, this village is expected to experience phenomenal population growth over the coming 2 decades. As shown in Figure 11, this is easily the highest growing village in the City of Sydney, and the growth rate significantly outstrips the City of Sydney local area average of 1.9%. By 2031, Green Square and City South is expected to be the largest village in the City by a significant margin, at almost twice the size of the next-largest village (King Street).

Table 12 – Forecast Village Population, 2011–2031

Estimated Resident Population Av. Annual Growth 2011–2031
2011 2021 2031 No. %

20,104

41,114

54,173

1,703

5.1%

Source: id Forecast

Figure 11 – Forecast Average Annual Population Growth, 2011–2031

Figure 11 – Forecast Average Annual Population Growth, 2011–2031

Source: id Forecast

Demographic change

Chart 8 depicts the forecast change in the age profile of village residents between 2011 and 2031. Due to the large scale of forecast population growth, all age groups are expected to grow larger over the forecast period. In general, the proportions in each age group are expected to remain roughly consistent with the following exceptions:

  • Tertiary education and independents (18-24) are expected to have their share of population reduced by around 6%, while young workforce (25-34) is expected to also decrease its share slightly by around 2%.
  • To balance this out, the share of parents and homebuilders (35-49) years is forecast to increase by 3%, while the share of seniors (70-84) will increase by 2%.

Chart 8 – Population by Age Group, 2011 & 2031

Chart 8 – Population by Age Group, 2011 & 2031

Workforce changes

Chart 9 highlights the workforce forecasts for the village based on projections made by the Bureau of Transport Statistics in 2012. Over the 20 year period to 2031, the village workforce is forecast to grow at an average of 432 workers per year, or 1.2%. Over the full period to 2046 it will be slightly slower at 414 workers per year, or 1.0% per annum. Although this growth rate is significantly below the expected population growth rate, it is still reasonably strong in the context of workforce growth expected for the wider City of Sydney local area. It also demonstrates that, despite the redevelopment of significant areas of employment land for residential purposes, the village workforce is still expected to grow as new businesses adopt more intensive forms of space use.

Chart 9 – Forecast Workforce Growth, 2011–2046

Chart 9 – Forecast Workforce Growth, 2011–2046

Major infrastructure

Due to the large influx of new residents into the village there is a significant amount of new residential, commercial and community infrastructure currently planned and under development that will serve this new population.

Overarching much of this infrastructure is the Green Square urban renewal project. This $8 billion project is the largest urban renewal project in the southern hemisphere. Covering 278 hectares of former industrial land when it is completed in 2030 the development is expected to house 40,000 new residents and 22,000 new workers.

One of the components of this project is the Green Square Town Centre. This development adjacent to the Green Square train station will be a civic, commercial and retail hub for the broader Green Square urban regeneration area. It will include a public plaza, library, commercial space and a retail centre.

Other developments of note include a new aquatic centre on Joynton Avenue, and a number of smaller community and creative spaces throughout the village.

Residential development activity

Figure 12 shows recently completed and future residential developments in the village as measured by the City of Sydney’s Residential Development Monitor. This highlights the large scale of recent and upcoming residential development in the area, which is mainly focussed in the north-western corner of the village. Many of these developments are very large in scale, often delivering in excess of 300 units per development.

Figure 12 – City of Sydney Residential Development Monitor, June 2013

Figure 12 – City of Sydney Residential Development Monitor, June 2013

What does this mean for my business?

Understanding the future outlook for the village is important for all local businesses and those considering locating in the area. Anticipating changes to the local resident and worker populations, along with changes to the physical environment, are important for successful long-term business planning.

Green Square and City South is currently undergoing unprecedented growth and this will bring a huge number of opportunities for entrepreneurial businesses. Growing demand for service industries from the growing population, coupled with the flexibility given by an built environment that is still under development, means that business opportunities will appear almost as rapidly as the population grows. As always, basing a business on sound principles, including a good location and a well-defined business strategy, are the keys to success.

Disclaimer

This information has been compiled from various sources. The publisher and contributors accept no responsibility for any injury, loss or damage arising from the use, error or omissions therein. While all care is taken to ensure a high degree of accuracy, users are invited to notify the City of Sydney of any discrepancies. No part of this information, including maps or data, may be reproduced without written permission.

Last updated: Tuesday, 16 June 2015